HYDERABAD: Politics like cricket is a game of glorious uncertainties. It is more so in Andhra Pradeshthis time around what with multi-cornered contests and intensely fought poll battles. So to predict with precision as to who would be the next chief minister of Andhra Pradesh is a near impossible task. It’s not merely a question of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy or N Chandrababu Naidu, a dark horse could emerge out of nowhere. And this dark horse we talk about need not be Chiranjeevi. Remember H D Deve Gowda or I K Gujral or Chandrasekhar, all of whom found themselves to be in the Prime Minister’s chair? Given below are the scenarios that may possibly emerge in the state and the fallout:
SCENARIO I
Congress gets a simple majority and returns to power.
OUTCOME: Y S Rajasekhara Reddy sure to be re-elected chief minister and all his pet development schemes will be rolled out for another five years.
SCENARIO II
Congress falls short of simple majority by 10-15 seats.
Outcome: Independents and few from other political parties likely to be bought (or persuaded, if you would like to put it that way) and Congress still forms the government with Rajasekhara Reddy calling the shots.
SCENARIO III
Congress gets 90-110 seats, thus requiring 60-40 seats to form a coalition government.
OUTCOME: Congress likely to woo Telangana Rashtra Samithi and Prajarajyam to form a coalition with the promise of nominating a backward class, Dalit or woman consensus chief ministerial candidate. The chief minister would most likely be from Telangana and could be anyone. Rajasekhara Reddy would be made the sacrificial goat but by then the former chief minister willtry his level best to put his own man in the chair. Shaky coalition may take over with no guarantee of stable government.
SCENARIO IV
Telugu Desam Party (TDP) gets simple majority on its own.
OUTCOME: A relieved N Chandrababu Naidu will become the chief minister and will pursue corruption cases against the previous regime leaders. Stable government likely for the next five years, but it will be a changed Naidu. He will be more populist than Rajasekhara Reddy can ever dream of!
SCENARIO V
Grand Alliance gets simple majority
OUTCOME: Grand Alliance partners TDP, TRS and Left parties may potentially form a coalition government. But will this be possible at all, given that TRS boss Chandrasekhar Rao is a slippery customer? Even if a government is formed, there will be a question mark on its stability as Naidu-KCR tie-up is a marriage of convenience.
SCENARIO VI
Prajarajyam surprises all and bags 70-80 seats.
OUTCOME: Chiranjeevi will call the shots and will seek the post of chief minister for himself. Whoever wants to form the government will have to fall in line. Otherwise no government can be formed at all and President’s rule will be the only option.
SCENARIO VII
Prajarajyam gets 40 seats, but neither the Congress nor the Grand Alliance gets a simple majority. Thus there is a hung house.
OUTCOME: Chiranjeevi calls the shots and seeks the post of chief minister. On negotiations, agrees to share the post of chief minister with the party with whom he allies. Chiranjeevi becomes chief minister for the first half of the term of the government and the ally appoints its own chief minister in the second term. This ally is likely to be the Congress, given Prajarajyam’s antipathy to TDP. But in politics, you never know.
SCENARIO VIII
An absolutely hung house, a khichdi of all khichdis
OUTCOME: resident’s rule is imposed for six months as no government can be formed. The assembly is in hibernation for six months. In the intervening period horse-trading takes place. More money exchanges hands than it did in the elections. At the end of it, a coalition government is formed. It is also possible that at the end of six months, no coalition can be formed. Then the house is dissolved and elections take place again, one year from now.
More BREAKING NEWS
| Top Video News
| |
